Index | Current price | Forecast | S1 | R1 | S2 | R2 |
FTSE100 | 7.543 | Bearish | 7.520 | 7.570 | 7.405 | 7.600 |
FTSEMIB | 27.544 | Bearish | 27.406 | 27.975 | 26.750 | 28.315 |
DAX 40 | 15.883 | Bearish | 15.736 | 15.980 | 15.040 | 16.290 |
S&P 500 | 4.662 | Consolidation | 4.600 | 4.720 | 4.535 | 4.808 |
NASDAQ 100 | 15.612 | Cons./ Bullish | 15.530 | 16.450 | 15.180 | 16.770 |
DOW JONES | 35.912 | Cons./ Bearish | 35.650 | 36.565 | 35.350 | 36.815 |
S: Support R: Resistance
FTSE 100 (#UKX)
The FTSE 100 ended the week up + 0.79%
For the week we remain in favour of an initial retracement to 7,490, to then continue to 7,405
Indicators
This week saw the FTSE100 perform better than other European and American indices. The 9MA still remains strong support of the index's bullish upside.
MACD continues its slow weakening and we believe it may soon reverse to the downside.
RSI, which after breaking the bullish trendline has carried out a "back-test", we believe is signalling an imminent bearish pressure.
To better understand the price action of the British index in recent weeks, it is necessary to carry out a "cross-asset" analysis by going to see how the strong performance of energy and financial stocks has in fact allowed an outperformance of the UKX compared to its peers: the influence of these two sectors was greater than the downward pressure not only of the general sentiment on the markets but also of a notable appreciation of the GBP / USD exchange rate (which has an inverse relationship with the FTSE100).
The current swing at the top of the uptrend channel, combined with an over-extension of the energy and financial sectors of which we expect a retracement, makes us shift the risk/return on the FTSE100 in favour of short-term falls.
Support for 7,520
Resistance at 7,570
FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)
The FTSEMIB had a week down by -0.88%
For the week we remain in favour of bearish continuation till 27,250
Indicators
The week saw the formation of a lower high that could support the theory of further bearish pressure on the Italian index.
The closing below the 9MA is also a further confirmation of a change in trend in the short term.
MACD, is about to cross to the downside along with a RSI that looks close to falling below the 50 line.
Despite a medium to long-term bullish view, we believe that the retracement of the FTSEMIB is not yet concluded and we expect further retracements in the short term.
Support at 27.406
Resistance at 27,975
DAX (#DAX)
IThe DAX ended the week down -0.83%
For the coming week we remain in favour of an initial retracement at 15,736 and then continue at least till 15,500.
Indicators
The week just ended seems to want to confirm a bearish formation: after testing the strong support at 15,736, the index recovered slightly and then reversed to the downside. This type of swing tends to generate further bearish pressure, stronger than the initial one.
MACD seems close to a bearish cross and RSI, after breaking the bullish trendline and carrying out a back-test, is very close to a break of the 50 line.
Support for 15,736
Resistance at 15,980
S&P500 (#SPX)
The S&P 500 had a week up by + 0.67%
For the week ahead, we expect a consolidation between 4,600 and 4,680
Indicators
The break of the bullish channel on Friday could lead to a consolidation around the strong support level at 4,600.
MACD continues its loss of momentum, which could soon result in a breakout of the 0 line.
RSI, already below 50, continues to go down.
For the moment we are in favour of a consolidation of the S&P500, where however a break of the strong support at 4.600 could lead to stronger downward swings.
Support for 4,600
Resistance at 4,720
NASDAQ 100 (#NDX)
The NASDAQ ended the week up + 1.82%
For the week ahead, we expect a further bullish test at 15.900
Indicators
The formation of a rising bottom by comparing the candles of January 10 and 14, 2022, could be a potential indicator of short-term bullishness.
MACD, below 0, is showing a gradual recovery of strength and RSI forming support at 40, are both signs of an internal strengthening of the index.
For the moment, we can mention the formation of a “falling wedge” (bullish) which will only be confirmed with the break to the upside of the 9MA, currently at 15,750-15,800.
Support at 15,530
Resistance at 16,450
DOW JONES (#DJI)
DOW JONES had a week down -0.41%
For the week ahead, we expect a consolidation between 36,000 and 35,600
Indicators
The DJI continues its gradual retracement which led to the break of the short-term bullish trendline, despite being able to close the week above the 50-day average.
MACD continues to proceed downwards and the RSI has just crossed the 50 line (bearish)
We are in favour of a continuation of the retracement and identify the zone of 35.650 and 35.350 as the next accumulation area.
In our view, the DJI's risk/reward remains biased to the downside for the time being.
Support at 35,650
Resistance at 36,565
OTB Global Investments
15 January 2022
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